The quest for the elusive 'fifth starter' is a complex and intriguing journey for the Padres. It's a role that, on the surface, seems straightforward, but in reality, it's a nebulous designation that can mean different things to different teams.
Padres pitching coach Ruben Niebla sums it up perfectly: "Hopefully, we reach a point where you can't distinguish between your five and your three, your three and your one. We want to deploy good pitchers, regardless of their number."
Currently, five talented pitchers are vying for what might be just one spot at the back end of the rotation. The debate within the organization revolves around whether these in-house candidates are capable of rounding out a rotation that can propel the team into the postseason.
But here's where it gets controversial: the 'fifth starter' role is often filled by multiple pitchers throughout the season. Last year, the Padres had a revolving door at this position, with Kyle Hart, Stephen Kolek, Michael King, Ryan Bergert, Nestor Cortes, and JP Sears all making starts in that spot.
And this is the part most people miss: the 'fifth starter' is not just about the individual pitcher. It's about the team's overall strategy and the ability to deploy a reliable pitcher when needed.
For instance, in 2025, Matt Waldron, the team's fifth starter, posted an impressive 2.76 ERA over 14 starts. During that period, the rest of the starters combined for a 4.35 ERA, with only Michael King coming close to Waldron's performance.
"Your fifth starter has to be dependable if you want to contend for the playoffs," Niebla emphasizes. "We believe we're a top-four playoff team, so we expect our fifth starter to deliver wins. We need pitchers who can keep us in the game and provide reliable innings."
The ideal scenario is to have a starter who can go seven innings, but Niebla acknowledges that there will be days when the fifth starter needs to step up and deliver a similar performance.
What's certain is that a contending team must have a deep pool of pitchers capable of covering at least five innings while keeping the damage to a minimum. If the Padres' bullpen lives up to expectations, this strategy could be their winning formula, pushing them towards a third consecutive season with 90+ victories.
Last season, the Padres had a remarkable 63-24 record when their starter went at least five innings and allowed three or fewer runs. That's significantly better than the MLB average of .588 in such games.
The five pitchers who filled the fifth spot last season combined for 16 starts of five or more innings with three or fewer runs allowed, and the Padres won 11 of those games.
While it's challenging to make direct comparisons, the average 'fifth starter' for the other 11 playoff teams in 2025 made 21 starts, pitched 109⅓ innings, and had a 4.62 ERA.
The Padres aren't searching for an ace among these contenders to join Nick Pivetta, Michael King, Joe Musgrove, and Randy Vásquez in the rotation. But they're also not settling for anything less.
"He's the ace on the day he pitches," says manager Craig Stammen. "We want our fifth starter to feel like our best option on that day. We know he might not be as talented as our ace, but we expect to win, and that's why we put him out there."
So, who will step up and claim the 'fifth starter' role for the Padres this season? Only time will tell, but one thing's for sure: it's a role that demands versatility, reliability, and the ability to rise to the occasion.
